Cox Automotive’s latest projections for the US automotive market in 2024 predict robust sales, with a focus on electric vehicles (EVs). The forecast anticipates a total of 15.7 million new cars and trucks to be sold in 2024, a slight increase from the previous year, with a significant portion of the growth attributed to fleet sales.
According to Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, Director of Industry Insights at Cox, more than 1.5 million of these vehicles are expected to be EVs. This comes after a year in which EV demand didn’t keep pace with production growth. In 2023, 1.1 million EVs were sold, constituting 7% of the market. For 2024, Cox predicts a 10% share for EVs, 14% for hybrids, and 78% for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
The automotive market is shifting from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market, with inventories returning to a healthy 70-day supply on average. This shift is expected to bring back incentives and dealer discounts for buyers. Cox anticipates slower growth due to inflation, with monthly payments up by 15% to 20% since the Federal Reserve’s actions against inflation began.
Despite these challenges, Cox sees positive trends, including the average transaction price (ATP) for EVs reaching $50,798 by the end of 2023. This is in line with ICE and hybrid vehicles, making EVs more financially accessible.
The winners in the 2023 auto market were Honda, gaining 1.3% market share with a 33% sales increase, and General Motors, increasing market share by 0.3% after a 14.1% sales boost. On the other hand, Toyota, Ford, and Stellantis faced market share declines.
Cox Automotive estimates that Tesla, with a 25.4% increase in sales, sold approximately 654,888 vehicles in the US in 2023. While Tesla reported global sales of 1.81 million vehicles, it doesn’t disclose country-specific figures, making estimates crucial for assessing its standing in the US market. AutoForecast Solutions suggests Tesla’s US sales were around 640,000, placing it ahead of Subaru in volume.