Tesla Publishes Official Q4 2025 Delivery Consensus to Preempt Analyst Speculation
Tesla has proactively released its company-compiled Q4 2025 delivery and energy storage consensus estimates on its Investor Relations website—an uncommon step aimed at preempting misinformation. The figures, sourced directly from analyst projections, anticipate 422,850 vehicle deliveries and 13.4 GWh of battery storage deployments for the quarter.
By disclosing these benchmarks upfront, Tesla establishes transparency ahead of its official results, minimizing the risk of claims that it “missed” expectations based on divergent estimates.
Analyst Consensus Highlights
Tesla’s press release aggregated data from 20 analysts for vehicle deliveries and 16 analysts for energy storage. Key takeaways include:
- Full-year 2025 delivery consensus: 1,640,752 vehicles, an 8.3% decline from FY 2024’s reported deliveries of 1,789,226.
- Participating analysts: Major firms including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Barclays, Wedbush, and RBC, among others.
While Tesla clarified it does not endorse individual analyst conclusions, the release provides a critical reference point for investors and media.
Credit: Tesla Investor Relations
Q4 2025 Push Amid Strategic Priorities
Despite Tesla’s long-term focus shifting toward advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and its Optimus humanoid robot, the company remains committed to maximizing Q4 vehicle deliveries. Reports from China suggest strong momentum, with social media posts indicating bustling activity at Tesla delivery centers in the final weeks of 2025.
China’s EV Market Performance (Jan–Nov 2025):
- Model Y: Led the RMB 200,000–300,000 premium EV segment with 359,463 units sold.
- Model 3: Ranked third, selling 172,392 units despite premium pricing compared to domestic rivals.
The data underscores Tesla’s resilience in China’s competitive electric vehicle market, even as global delivery projections reflect a slight year-over-year decline.
