Why Tesla’s Q4 performance could shock many after incredible Q3

Tesla’s Q3 2025 Performance and Outlook for Q4

Tesla has reported its strongest three-month performance in company history, with nearly half a million vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025, far exceeding analyst estimates. The remarkable performance was largely driven by the momentum of the EV tax credit, which expired on September 30, 2025.

The Impact of the EV Tax Credit

The $7,500 discount offered by the EV tax credit prompted consumers to rush to purchase Tesla vehicles before the credit expired. Although the credit is no longer available, the IRS changed the rules mid-quarter, allowing buyers to still claim the credit if they placed an order and made a marginal payment before September 30. Tesla’s $250 order deposit qualified as the marginal payment, enabling customers to take delivery in Q4 or Q1 and still benefit from the credit.

Q4 Outlook

The residual impact of the EV tax credit will continue to be felt in Q4, potentially leading to stronger-than-expected delivery figures. Additionally, Tesla traditionally experiences its strongest quarters in Q4 due to initiatives such as price cuts, incentives, and other offers. The company is likely to introduce new offers, which will be boosted by the holiday season.

Key Factors Driving Q4 Growth

1. EV Tax Credit Deliveries: Orders placed in Q3 will continue to contribute to Q4 delivery figures.
2. Seasonal Holiday Boost: Tesla’s Q4 performance is typically enhanced by the holiday season, with customers taking advantage of offers and discounts.
3. Affordable Model Production Ramp: Tesla is rumored to be preparing to launch an affordable model, potentially priced at $39,990, which could drive growth in Q4.

Potential for QoQ Growth

If Tesla can lock in competitive pricing for its affordable model, the company may see a return to quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth, a trend that has been absent in recent years. The launch of the Model Y Performance in the U.S. on September 30 also contributed to orders, and it is likely that many customers who ordered in Q3 will take delivery in Q4.